Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.003810 0.004172 0.004559 0.005005 0.005507 0.006055 0.006701
2025-12-07 0.003287 0.003811 0.004412 0.005159 0.006069 0.007150 0.008544
2025-12-14 0.002887 0.003471 0.004174 0.005092 0.006274 0.007763 0.009814
2025-12-21 0.002578 0.003188 0.003949 0.004982 0.006371 0.008207 0.010878
2025-12-28 0.002358 0.002986 0.003793 0.004926 0.006509 0.008693 0.012029
2026-01-04 0.002210 0.002859 0.003716 0.004957 0.006754 0.009336 0.013470
2026-01-11 0.002053 0.002704 0.003583 0.004891 0.006845 0.009752 0.014608
2026-01-18 0.001924 0.002576 0.003476 0.004847 0.006954 0.010196 0.015836
2026-01-25 0.001807 0.002454 0.003365 0.004784 0.007023 0.010577 0.017001
2026-02-01 0.001723 0.002373 0.003306 0.004793 0.007200 0.011142 0.018551
2026-02-08 0.001628 0.002271 0.003209 0.004730 0.007254 0.011502 0.019774
2026-02-15 0.001538 0.002170 0.003105 0.004648 0.007264 0.011784 0.020882
2026-02-22 0.001484 0.002122 0.003083 0.004706 0.007530 0.012572 0.023164
2026-03-01 0.001451 0.002105 0.003111 0.004848 0.007961 0.013725 0.026425
2026-03-08 0.001377 0.002020 0.003023 0.004787 0.008018 0.014172 0.028249
2026-03-15 0.001301 0.001928 0.002917 0.004684 0.007989 0.014441 0.029721
2026-03-22 0.001242 0.001857 0.002843 0.004632 0.008047 0.014893 0.031705
2026-03-29 0.001202 0.001817 0.002816 0.004661 0.008264 0.015702 0.034724
2026-04-05 0.001149 0.001752 0.002743 0.004600 0.008296 0.016113 0.036814
2026-04-12 0.001103 0.001697 0.002683 0.004559 0.008362 0.016608 0.039233
2026-04-19 0.001058 0.001640 0.002617 0.004501 0.008388 0.017013 0.041489
2026-04-26 0.001026 0.001604 0.002586 0.004509 0.008553 0.017764 0.044927
2026-05-03 0.000986 0.001553 0.002525 0.004451 0.008570 0.018163 0.047401